Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:48:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
51 0x51bf…d7a5 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$740 (+24%) realized +$732 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$382per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$813now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$257
sports 19% +$533
world 16% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +37.7% +24.6% 100% 50% +22.5%
≤30d 6 +37.7% +24.6% 100% 50% +22.5%
≤90d 6 +37.7% +24.6% 100% 50% +22.5%
all 6 +37.7% +24.6% 100% 50% +22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.6% 50% +22.5%
10% +12.7% 50% +10.7%
15% +1.8% 50% +0.0%
20% -8.2% 33% -9.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$133 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$813
Realized+$732
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage6d
Avg bet$382
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Yes 99¢ 100¢ $792 $800 +$8 (+1%)
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals Yes 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $579 +$5 +1%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $94 +$1 +1%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $71 +$56 +79%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $494 +$243 +49%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $511 +$477 +93%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $500 +$13 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $293 31m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $11 31m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $9 31m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $102 31m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $10 31m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $26 31m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $27 31m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $13 31m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $169 32m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $15 32m
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $117 32m
Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $13 35m
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $94 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $140 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $42 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $12 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $46 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $48 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $9 1h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $260 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $71 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $494 8h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $511 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $211 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $25 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $276 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $153 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 86¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $812.94 · official $812.94 (match) · 41 history records