Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51bb…a38b sports 524 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,161 (-2%) realized −$1,161 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%370W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$300est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$40
14 days−$119
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,067
crypto 3% −$186
other 1% +$50
politics 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.5% -1.8% 75% 75% -2.2%
≤30d 86 -2.5% -11.8% 76% 53% -10.2%
≤90d 396 -2.6% -11.9% 70% 53% -12.4%
all 524 -2.6% -11.9% 71% 50% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 50% -11.6%
10% -20.3% 23% -20.1%
15% -28.0% 8% -27.8%
20% -35.1% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$46 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses370 / 154
Est. fees paid−$300
Open positions0
Markets (closed)524 / 524
History coverage98d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 524 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito Jun 29 $110 +$12 +11%
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 29 $194 +$24 +12%
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 29 $107 −$21 -20%
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 29 $82 +$25 +30%
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Jun 21 $200 −$79 -40%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $91 +$29 +32%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone Jun 21 $77 +$13 +17%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $54 −$54 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Hiroki Moriya Jun 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $59 +$20 +34%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 18 $57 +$2 +4%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $51 +$6 +12%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $94 −$42 -45%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $80 +$13 +16%
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 16 $90 +$29 +32%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $135 +$10 +7%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $117 +$17 +14%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $100 +$18 +18%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $84 +$16 +19%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $80 +$4 +5%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $81 +$20 +25%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $122 −$41 -34%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $115 +$41 +35%
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $87 +$28 +33%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $82 +$4 +5%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $77 +$5 +7%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Parma: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 15 $66 +$11 +16%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $88 +$12 +13%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $70 +$18 +26%
Tucuman: Maximo Zeitune vs Arklon Del Pino Jun 10 $85 −$85 -99%
ITF Decatur: Maria Kononova vs Lea Ma Jun 10 $114 −$30 -26%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 10 $195 −$80 -41%
Cattolica: Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 10 $273 +$31 +11%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $257 +$16 +6%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $245 +$12 +5%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $224 +$22 +10%
Tucuman: Karim Bennani vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 09 $215 +$8 +4%
Lyon: Matteo Martineau vs Mickael Kaouk Jun 09 $192 +$23 +12%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $184 +$7 +4%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Filip Jianu Jun 09 $158 +$27 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $25 +$1 +2%
Ilkley: August Holmgren vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 08 $132 +$25 +19%
Lyon: Laslo Djere vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 08 $105 +$27 +26%
Cattolica: Pierluigi Basile vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 08 $88 +$16 +18%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $72 +$17 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $99 −$97 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito SELL Dayana Yastremska 99¢ $122 35m
Wimbledon WTA: Dayana Yastremska vs Aoi Ito BUY Dayana Yastremska 89¢ $110 43m
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova SELL Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 88¢ $110 57m
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 85¢ $107 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova SELL Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 75¢ $107 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 59¢ $86 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Nicolas Mejia 72¢ $86 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 89¢ $107 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet SELL Arthur Rinderknech 100¢ $107 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Arthur Rinderknech 76¢ $82 3h
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Adolfo Vallejo 44¢ $81 8d
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo SELL Yannick Hanfmann 60¢ $81 8d
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo BUY Yannick Hanfmann 88¢ $119 8d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $120 8d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 75¢ $91 8d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone SELL Alex Molcan 100¢ $90 8d
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Murphy Cassone BUY Alex Molcan 85¢ $77 8d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 88¢ $54 10d
ITF Maanshan: Kuan-Yi Lee vs Hiroki Moriya BUY Kuan-Yi Lee 91¢ $80 10d
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva SELL Juan Estevez 100¢ $80 10d
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 74¢ $59 10d
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna SELL Conner Huertas Del Pino 99¢ $59 10d
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 95¢ $57 10d
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri SELL Daniel Rincon 100¢ $57 10d
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 89¢ $51 10d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 43¢ $52 11d
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 76¢ $94 11d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria SELL Nicolas Kicker 99¢ $93 12d
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Nicolas Kicker 85¢ $80 12d
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna SELL Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 100¢ $119 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1188 history records