Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:58:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51b9…a93a weather 255 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+5%) realized +$12 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%81W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$21
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$6
crypto 2% $0
world 1% $0
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +1.0% -8.6% 38% 37% -8.6%
≤30d 243 -6.2% -15.1% 33% 31% -15.2%
≤90d 244 -6.4% -15.3% 33% 31% -15.4%
all 244 -6.4% -15.3% 33% 31% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 31% -15.4%
10% -23.4% 30% -23.5%
15% -30.8% 30% -30.9%
20% -37.6% 28% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses81 / 163
Open positions11
Markets (closed)244 / 255
History coverage31d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+315%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Yes 8¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Yes 14¢ 25¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+79%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +205%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +377%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$4 +381%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +177%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +107%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.47 · official $17.48 (match) · 543 history records