Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51b2…107f crypto 385 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$114 (-8%) realized −$114 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%176W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$38
14 days−$88
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -13.1% -21.3% 31% 31% -23.2%
≤30d 385 -8.5% -17.2% 46% 40% -17.8%
≤90d 385 -8.5% -17.2% 46% 40% -17.8%
all 385 -8.5% -17.2% 46% 40% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 40% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 31% -25.7%
15% -32.4% 21% -32.9%
20% -39.0% 11% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses176 / 209
Open positions0
Markets (closed)385 / 385
History coverage22d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 385 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$11 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$8 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$8 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 06 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 839 history records