Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:09:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
51 0x51b0…0122 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$19 · open −$37
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate86%42W / 7L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$437per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$7,868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$28
crypto 42% −$28
world 6% +$9
politics 1% $0
weather 0% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
all 49 -1.5% -10.9% 86% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$7,868
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses42 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage551d
Avg bet$437
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch? No 100¢ 99¢ $4,950 $4,913 −$37 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,955 $2,955 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 25 $2,978 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $2,983 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2,987 $0 +0%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jan 15 $28 −$28 -100%
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025? Jan 15 $25 +$3 +14%
MetaMask airdrop in Q3 2025? Oct 05 $464 +$1 +0%
Base airdrop in Q3 2025? Aug 17 $94 $0 +0%
Ukraine joins NATO in 2025? Aug 13 $227 $0 -0%
Rabby airdrop in Q3 2025? Aug 13 $319 $0 +0%
PartyDAO airdrop in Q3 2025? Aug 05 $111 +$1 +1%
US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025? Aug 03 $250 $0 +0%
Tether insolvent in 2025? Jul 26 $25 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Jul 24 $705 +$5 +1%
Will Trump resign in 2025? Jul 19 $54 $0 +0%
Pump.fun >$10B market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Avail airdrop in Q3 2025? Jul 14 $25 $0 +2%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Jul 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 12 $727 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 12 $692 +$1 +0%
MetaMask airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 09 $27 $0 +1%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June? May 29 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or higher on February 2 Feb 25 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on February Feb 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Circle IPO in 2024? Jan 01 $10 $0 +0%
$COIN added to S&P 500 in 2024? Jan 01 $10 $0 +0%
US government Bitcoin reserves in 2024? Jan 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Kraken IPO in 2024? Jan 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch in 2024? Jan 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Dec 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will Biden finish his term? Dec 27 $20 $0 +1%
MetaMask airdrop in 2024? Dec 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024? Dec 25 $50 $0 +0%
Base airdrop in 2024? Dec 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024? Dec 25 $50 $0 +0%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? Dec 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? Dec 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? Dec 24 $50 $0 +0%
Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024? Dec 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Dec 23 $50 $0 +0%
Macron out as president of France in 2024? Dec 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP flip ETH in 2024? Dec 23 $50 $0 +0%
Linea airdrop in 2024? Dec 23 $50 $0 +0%
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024? Dec 23 $50 $0 +0%
Is John McAfee alive? Dec 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Dec 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Dec 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Dec 21 $50 $0 +0%
Ethena crash in 2024? Dec 21 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2,958 1h
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $2,981 1h
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $2,432 3h
Reya FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $547 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,984 15h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,983 8d
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $4,952 39d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $28 161d
NATO x Russia military clash in 2025? BUY No 88¢ $25 263d
Base airdrop in Q3 2025? SELL No 97¢ $43 312d
Base airdrop in Q3 2025? SELL No 97¢ $10 312d
Base airdrop in Q3 2025? SELL No 97¢ $19 313d
Base airdrop in Q3 2025? SELL No 97¢ $2 313d
Base airdrop in Q3 2025? SELL No 97¢ $1 313d
Base airdrop in Q3 2025? SELL No 97¢ $6 313d
Ukraine joins NATO in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $40 315d
Ukraine joins NATO in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $187 315d
Rabby airdrop in Q3 2025? SELL No 96¢ $319 316d
PartyDAO airdrop in Q3 2025? SELL No 95¢ $1 324d
PartyDAO airdrop in Q3 2025? SELL No 95¢ $18 324d
PartyDAO airdrop in Q3 2025? SELL No 95¢ $1 324d
PartyDAO airdrop in Q3 2025? SELL No 95¢ $20 324d
PartyDAO airdrop in Q3 2025? SELL No 95¢ $1 325d
US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $194 326d
PartyDAO airdrop in Q3 2025? SELL No 95¢ $1 330d
Tether insolvent in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $25 333d
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $371 335d
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $287 335d
Will Trump resign in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $19 340d
MetaMask airdrop in Q3 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 343d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,867.85 · official $7,867.85 (match) · 219 history records