Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:28:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
51 0x51ad…05be crypto 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,126 (+3%) realized +$1,111 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate70%81W / 34L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$262per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,900now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$213
7 days+$383
14 days+$518
30 days+$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% +$144
world 24% +$348
other 22% +$154
crypto 14% −$52
economics 7% +$5
finance 4% +$98
sports 2% +$409
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +130.2% +108.3% 71% 71% +25.9%
≤30d 27 +64.2% +48.6% 70% 48% -2.0%
≤90d 61 +36.4% +23.4% 75% 39% -3.7%
all 115 +19.3% +8.0% 70% 33% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.0% 33% -6.2%
10% -2.4% 27% -15.1%
15% -11.8% 23% -23.3%
20% -20.4% 21% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$17 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$2,900
Realized+$1,111
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses81 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions9
Markets (closed)115 / 125
History coverage173d
Avg bet$262
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $1,200 $1,193 −$7 (-1%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? No 90¢ 93¢ $485 $505 +$20 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $392 $389 −$2 (-1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $272 $273 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 18¢ 20¢ $210 $227 +$17 (+8%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $142 $142 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 87¢ 86¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 79¢ 52¢ $40 $26 −$14 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$202 +982%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $375 +$100 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $518 +$103 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $31 +$112 +365%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +206%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 +$24 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $153 −$65 -42%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $2,783 +$63 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 14 $200 −$3 -2%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $51 −$4 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 06 $697 +$12 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 06 $497 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 03 $230 +$1 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 29 $20 +$14 +67%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 25 $15 +$15 +100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 25 $15 +$25 +165%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 25 $30 +$31 +101%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? May 23 $1,100 +$6 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 218.5 May 18 $5 +$5 +90%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 18 $10 +$12 +119%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 18 $20 +$10 +50%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 18 $15 +$21 +140%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 18 $15 +$23 +152%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 18 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? May 15 $436 −$1 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 15 $21 +$19 +89%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 15 $100 +$4 +4%
NHL Playoffs: Hurricanes vs. Flyers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 15 $101 +$72 +71%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 10 $100 +$78 +78%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Turkey strike Iran by April 30? May 04 $53 +$2 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? May 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 04 $1,000 +$11 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the Eastern Conference? Apr 27 $30 −$27 -90%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Eastern Conference? Apr 27 $300 +$19 +6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? Apr 21 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 18 $538 −$41 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 41m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $267 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $395 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 87¢ $48 1h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 18¢ $6 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 18¢ $11 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 18¢ $14 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 18¢ $66 4d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 18¢ $8 4d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 18¢ $1 4d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 18¢ $1 4d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 18¢ $1 4d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 18¢ $1 4d
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,204 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? BUY Down 51¢ $31 4d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 18¢ $105 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Canada win on BUY $10 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $432 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $126 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $29 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $13 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $21 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $13 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $154 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,899.91 · official $2,899.91 (match) · 451 history records