Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51aa…1c27 crypto 498 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized −$1 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%209W / 283L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$52
14 days−$52
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -27.0% -34.0% 30% 30% -33.4%
≤30d 492 -5.9% -14.8% 42% 35% -14.9%
≤90d 492 -5.9% -14.8% 42% 35% -14.9%
all 492 -5.9% -14.8% 42% 35% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 35% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 33% -23.0%
15% -30.4% 32% -30.5%
20% -37.3% 31% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses209 / 283
Open positions6
Markets (closed)492 / 498
History coverage24d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 492 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 54¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 53¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 53¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Up 47¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 54¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +134%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$20 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 26 $4 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 26 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 26 $4 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 26 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 26 $2 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 26 $4 −$2 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 26 $4 −$2 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.92 · official $51.48 · 1444 history records