Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51a8…76f1 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$1
other 28% +$4
finance 16% $0
politics 8% +$1
crypto 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 12 -0.7% -10.2% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.7% -10.2% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -0.0% -9.5% 42% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 3% -8.8%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.6%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.35 per $1 lost it wins $3.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage398d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $52 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $49 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $49 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $116 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $54 −$1 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $6 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $25 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $4 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 03 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 25 $1 $0 -6%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Hwang Kyo-ahn win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 24 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $101K on May 27? May 24 $2 $0 -10%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? May 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 20 $24 +$4 +18%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $23 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 16 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 36m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $48 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $49 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $35 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $21 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $14 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $44 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $49 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $49 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $44 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $44 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $8 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $35 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 21d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records