Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x51a0…1670 politics 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$13
politics 16% −$6
other 6% −$22
economics 1% $0
sports 1% +$23
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 46 +1.2% -8.5% 26% 13% -9.4%
all 60 +0.7% -8.9% 25% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 10% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 10% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 8% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage596d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $80 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $12 +$7 +65%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $68 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 06 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $73 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $73 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $67 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $67 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $143 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $72 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $10 +$7 +72%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +86%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $13 +$6 +46%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $13 +$6 +48%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $11 +$1 +10%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $12 +$4 +29%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Jets vs. Stars Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-15? Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 02 $21 $0 +2%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 06 $81 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 20 $13,521 −$14 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 19h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 20h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 39h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 40h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 6d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 11d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 12d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 12d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 15d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 16d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 16d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $12 23d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.34 · official $50.34 (match) · 256 history records