Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:12:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x519f…6176 other 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate90%100W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 32% +$1
other 25% −$6
crypto 25% −$3
world 7% $0
politics 6% −$2
sports 4% −$2
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 37 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 111 -7.3% -16.1% 90% 4% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 4% -10.7%
10% -24.2% 3% -19.3%
15% -31.5% 3% -27.1%
20% -38.2% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses100 / 11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)111 / 115
History coverage553d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $46 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May? May 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $108 in May? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 29 $2 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? May 05 $34 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $2 in March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $120 end of March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of March? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of March? Apr 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? Mar 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? Mar 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of February? Mar 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Mar 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of February? Mar 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $160 end of February? Mar 01 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $54 1h
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 2d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $3 2d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $8 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $46 30d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 32d
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $108 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 36d
Will Poland win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 44d
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O BUY No 100¢ $5 48d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 49d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $3 49d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 51d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 51d
Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 53d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 53d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 54d
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 54d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 54d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $34 61d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 63d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $4 66d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 67d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 BUY No 100¢ $2 68d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $3 69d
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti BUY No 100¢ $2 70d
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $3 70d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April? BUY No 99¢ $2 71d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 72d
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin BUY No 99¢ $3 72d
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti BUY No 100¢ $3 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.22 · official $68.22 (match) · 229 history records