Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:55:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x5198…3d9a
weather · 1066 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$10 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,255
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1025 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions29
Markets (closed)1039 / 1066
History coverage41d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day83.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 29 History 1039 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days+$15
14 days+$2
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $46 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? No 96¢ 97¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? No 97¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? No 97¢ 98¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? No 99¢ 96¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 14? No 97¢ 94¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? No 98¢ 98¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 2? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 71°F or below on April 28? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? Jun 13 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 14? Jun 13 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $45 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$11
other 1% +$50
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $47 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $45 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $45 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $37 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $29 7h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $45 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $46 8h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $45 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $45 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $45 8h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $44 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $23 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $45 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $22 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $9 9h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $45 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $45 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $46 10h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 88°F or higher on Jun SELL No 100¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $47 13h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $45 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $43 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -0.0% -9.6% 99% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 686 -0.2% -9.7% 99% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 1039 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.5%
all 1039 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover83.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,255.36 · official $1,254.50 (match) · 3500 history records