Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:41:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x5198…8993 crypto 205 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate45%93W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$37
other 26% +$1
sports 10% −$1
politics 7% +$1
world 6% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 205 +4.1% -5.8% 45% 31% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 31% -10.2%
10% -14.8% 26% -18.8%
15% -23.0% 22% -26.7%
20% -30.6% 18% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses93 / 112
Open positions0
Markets (closed)205 / 205
History coverage222d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 205 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? Jun 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel win the Paris mayor election? Mar 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Mar 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Paradex launch a token on March 4? Mar 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 05 $44 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 04 $1 +$1 +127%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 03 $1 $0 +6%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will the US strike Mexico next? Mar 01 $41 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 01 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 01 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Comcast close Warner Bros acquisition? Feb 28 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 27 $1 $0 +21%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Flashbots be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $85 $0 -0%
Will there be 22 or more US strikes on Somalia in February 2026? Feb 23 $43 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Vesna – Green Party (Vesna) win the most seats in the 2026 Sloven Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Feb 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? Feb 19 $44 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Feb 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 18 $46 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 17 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Feb 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)? Feb 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 11, 2026? Feb 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 13 $47 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Feb 12 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +15%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? Feb 12 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $40 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 13d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? SELL No 100¢ $40 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 20d
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel win the Paris mayor election? SELL No 100¢ $43 88d
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel win the Paris mayor election? BUY No 100¢ $43 88d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $43 97d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $43 97d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $43 100d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $43 100d
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar SELL No 100¢ $43 102d
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar BUY No 100¢ $43 102d
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $43 103d
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $43 103d
Will Paradex launch a token on March 4? SELL No 100¢ $43 104d
Will Paradex launch a token on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $43 104d
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 100¢ $43 104d
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 100¢ $44 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 104d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 104d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 104d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 105d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 107d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $42 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 495 history records