Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x5197…053c crypto 54 markets active 24h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$825 (+5%) realized +$825 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%27W / 27L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$171est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$255
7 days+$96
14 days+$96
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$699
crypto 39% −$58
other 9% +$1,209
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -8.2% -17.0% 44% 42% -9.0%
≤30d 45 -8.2% -17.0% 44% 42% -9.0%
≤90d 46 -8.1% -16.9% 43% 41% -9.0%
all 54 +6.5% -3.6% 50% 48% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 48% -7.0%
10% -12.9% 44% -15.9%
15% -21.3% 44% -24.1%
20% -29.0% 44% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$507) neutral
Persistence
early +82% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$246 vs −$229 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$825
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses27 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage127d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $330 +$172 +52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$44 +171%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$8 +15%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $1,737 −$1,711 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $930 −$900 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1,016 −$342 -34%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $833 −$72 -9%
Will Trump say "BLM" or "Black Lives Matter" during the Black History Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crime" during the Black History Month reception? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" during his next YouTube video? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Helicopter" or "Jet" during his next YouTube video? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the Black History Month re Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Drake Maye win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be blue? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $521 −$452 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $639 −$639 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $455 −$455 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $518 −$518 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,301 +$63 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $203 +$222 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $507 +$453 +89%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $178 +$166 +94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$168 +110%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,295 +$1,028 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$70 +134%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1,011 +$600 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $507 +$1,189 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $517 +$435 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $432 −$432 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $416 +$541 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $518 +$511 +99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $226 +$179 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $109 +$120 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $247 +$216 +87%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $232 −$6 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $57 +$58 +102%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 26 $205 −$7 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 26 $153 +$137 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 26 $50 +$36 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$104 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 25 $50 +$49 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $330 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $60 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 46¢ $151 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 9¢ $15 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 11¢ $26 28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 48¢ $203 28h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 49¢ $1,737 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $930 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 33¢ $674 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 48¢ $1,016 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 46¢ $761 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $833 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 32¢ $51 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 72¢ $275 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $425 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $253 2d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $961 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $253 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $507 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $202 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $203 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 51¢ $178 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $320 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $152 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 86¢ $2,323 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $1,219 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $45 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records