Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:10:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
51 0x5195…c25c crypto 409 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$468 (+14%) realized +$470 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate67%273W / 135L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$32
14 days+$105
30 days+$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$399
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 +1.0% -8.6% 65% 60% -5.9%
≤30d 408 +10.9% +0.3% 67% 63% -1.7%
≤90d 408 +10.9% +0.3% 67% 63% -1.7%
all 408 +10.9% +0.3% 67% 63% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 63% -1.7%
10% -9.3% 60% -11.1%
15% -18.0% 51% -19.7%
20% -26.1% 38% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$470
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses273 / 135
Open positions1
Markets (closed)408 / 409
History coverage21d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 408 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 77¢ 62¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.85 · official $17.33 · 683 history records