Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x5194…1040
crypto · 20 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$31 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$8 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$16 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +136%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $20 +$9 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 85% −$40
world 15% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $29 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -50.6% -55.3% 22% 22% -29.4%
≤30d 18 -50.6% -55.3% 22% 22% -29.4%
≤90d 18 -50.6% -55.3% 22% 22% -29.4%
all 18 -50.6% -55.3% 22% 22% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.3% 22% -29.4%
10% ← realistic here -59.6% 22% -36.2%
15% -63.5% 22% -42.3%
20% -67.1% 17% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.17 · official $11.08 · 35 history records