Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5191…0c35 crypto 1358 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,576 (-8%) realized −$1,576 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate74%1010W / 347L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$227
14 days−$588
30 days−$930
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -20.6% -28.1% 39% 35% -55.6%
≤30d 926 -4.6% -13.7% 75% 46% -15.6%
≤90d 1357 -3.9% -13.0% 74% 42% -15.2%
all 1357 -3.9% -13.0% 74% 42% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 42% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 17% -23.4%
15% -29.0% 11% -30.8%
20% -35.9% 7% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$1,576
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses1010 / 347
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1357 / 1358
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Up 63¢ 66¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $29 −$15 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 08 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 08 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $75 −$75 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.24 · official $5.76 (match) · 3500 history records