Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x5191…06f2 sports 204 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$558 (+21%) realized +$618 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%84W / 117L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$286
7 days+$479
14 days+$511
30 days+$490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$244
other 36% +$214
weather 3% −$19
politics 0% −$7
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +17.7% +6.5% 56% 56% +11.9%
≤30d 201 +7.1% -3.1% 42% 41% +9.1%
≤90d 201 +7.1% -3.1% 42% 41% +9.1%
all 201 +7.1% -3.1% 42% 41% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 41% +9.1%
10% -12.4% 39% -1.3%
15% -20.9% 36% -10.9%
20% -28.6% 34% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$618
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses84 / 117
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions3
Markets (closed)201 / 204
History coverage29d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 56¢ $193 $170 −$23 (-12%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 12¢ $50 $13 −$37 (-74%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $14 +$48 +334%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $329 +$76 +23%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $68 +$21 +31%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $152 +$108 +71%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $158 +$57 +36%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$17 -84%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $76 +$27 +36%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $26 +$27 +104%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $26 +$42 +164%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $24 +$46 +196%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $9 +$20 +214%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $42 +$35 +85%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $146 +$17 +11%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $21 $0 -2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 $0 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $37 +$27 +72%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$18 +59%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $22 +$19 +85%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $88 +$30 +33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $47 +$14 +31%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $39 +$17 +43%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $80 +$41 +52%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$6 +284%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $34 +$38 +113%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$11 +128%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $24 +$23 +96%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $34 +$32 +96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$5 +257%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 +$9 +157%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$8 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $196 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $63 5h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 6h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $404 8h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $329 10h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $30 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes $11 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes $11 21h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 21h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $89 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $260 22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $68 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $214 25h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $158 26h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 28h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $28 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $76 34h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 39h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 33¢ $24 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $26 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 57¢ $25 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $26 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 28¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.71 · official $188.75 (match) · 430 history records