Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:25:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5191…4a6e crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (260 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+3%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%29W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day260.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (260 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -13.7% -21.9% 55% 53% -10.5%
≤30d 53 -13.7% -21.9% 55% 53% -10.5%
≤90d 53 -13.7% -21.9% 55% 53% -10.5%
all 53 -13.7% -21.9% 55% 53% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover260.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 53% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.4% 40% -19.0%
15% -36.2% 23% -26.9%
20% -42.4% 19% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses29 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day260.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$16 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$7 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$14 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$41 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$23 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$9 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $21 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $13 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $18 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $16 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $18 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 278 history records