Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x518f…df4c weather 318 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate93%276W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 73% −$4
world 15% +$2
other 8% +$2
politics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -0.4% -9.9% 91% 23% -10.4%
≤30d 190 +0.1% -9.5% 92% 21% -10.1%
≤90d 275 +0.7% -8.9% 92% 19% -10.2%
all 297 +1.2% -8.5% 93% 19% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 19% -9.9%
10% -17.2% 6% -18.5%
15% -25.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses276 / 21
Open positions21
Markets (closed)297 / 318
History coverage147d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? No 82¢ 97¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Human moon landing in 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 91¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 82¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? No 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 17? No 92¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? No 74¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 12¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 74¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 41¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? BUY No 94¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $2 34h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.18 · official $45.18 (match) · 723 history records