Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:41:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
51 0x5184…1363 other 98 markets active 19h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,037 (-9%) realized −$455 · open −$582
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%36W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3,528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$33
14 days−$1,047
30 days−$569
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$299
sports 31% −$368
world 15% −$195
politics 7% +$157
crypto 3% −$213
weather 2% −$160
finance 1% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -11.9% -20.3% 50% 40% -10.7%
≤30d 72 +1.1% -8.6% 50% 43% -16.1%
≤90d 72 +1.1% -8.6% 50% 43% -16.1%
all 72 +1.1% -8.6% 50% 43% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 43% -16.1%
10% -17.3% 33% -24.1%
15% -25.3% 24% -31.4%
20% -32.6% 18% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$51 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$3,528
Realized−$455
Unrealized−$582
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses36 / 36
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions26
Markets (closed)72 / 98
History coverage23d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $760 $749 −$11 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $550 $540 −$9 (-2%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 74¢ $400 $419 +$19 (+5%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 72¢ $340 $333 −$7 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $250 $193 −$57 (-23%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 23¢ $317 $155 −$162 (-51%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $150 $122 −$28 (-19%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $105 $102 −$3 (-3%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $80 $88 +$8 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $60 $47 −$13 (-22%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 77¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-29%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 1¢ $307 $2 −$304 (-99%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $151 −$151 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 +$56 +118%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $537 +$198 +37%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $504 −$61 -12%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 10 $585 +$65 +11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $500 +$24 +5%
Will Michel Barnier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential Jun 10 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $45 −$2 -5%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $26 −$8 -30%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $51 +$1 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 08 $46 −$1 -3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $116 +$42 +36%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $51 −$18 -35%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $51 −$9 -18%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -14%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Ron DeSantis as the next United States Atto Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 07 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in May? Jun 07 $17 −$17 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on May 26? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 07 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 07 $457 −$338 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 28? Jun 07 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 210-220mm of precipitation in May? Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 07 $194 −$33 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 26? Jun 07 $42 −$42 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Tyler: Liam Draxl vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 05 $50 +$21 +42%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $10 +$101 +976%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Singapore Jun 01 $61 +$19 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 26? Jun 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Jun 01 $78 −$78 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $51 −$51 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 01 $101 −$101 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 01 $310 −$3 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $48 +$6 +12%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 31 $301 +$32 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 31 $51 +$8 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $343 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $424 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $103 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $412 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 67¢ $443 2d
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $322 5d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 5d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5d
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 85¢ $82 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $524 5d
Will Michel Barnier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential SELL Yes 5¢ $20 5d
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $35 5d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 82¢ $101 5d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $42 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $77 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $154 5d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Otto Virtanen 51¢ $114 7d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 7d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $52 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $44 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $72 8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 8d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 73¢ $116 8d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $33 8d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $42 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,528.11 · official $3,530.65 (match) · 211 history records