Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
51 0x5183…d4da other 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,369 (+1%) realized +$469 · open +$900
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate76%26W / 8L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,616per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$71,353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$13
14 days+$9
30 days+$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$937
crypto 12% +$227
politics 12% −$165
sports 3% +$460
world 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.8% -13.9% 80% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 14 +43.8% +30.1% 86% 21% -5.9%
≤90d 23 +35.0% +22.2% 83% 22% -5.2%
all 34 +15.8% +4.8% 76% 26% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 26% -8.1%
10% -5.3% 18% -16.9%
15% -14.4% 15% -24.9%
20% -22.8% 9% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$128 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$71,353
Realized+$469
Unrealized+$900
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses26 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions37
Markets (closed)34 / 71
History coverage147d
Avg bet$1,616
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 95¢ 100¢ $15,835 $16,552 +$717 (+5%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 96¢ 95¢ $14,862 $14,690 −$172 (-1%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $8,001 $7,965 −$35 (-0%)
Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $5,000 $5,043 +$43 (+1%)
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $4,000 $4,036 +$36 (+1%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $4,000 $3,981 −$19 (-0%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $2,000 $2,072 +$72 (+4%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 97¢ $2,000 $2,067 +$67 (+3%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score No 89¢ 100¢ $1,430 $1,602 +$172 (+12%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 95¢ $1,450 $1,420 −$30 (-2%)
World Cup: Fastest Goal Record Broken? No 96¢ 97¢ $1,250 $1,260 +$10 (+1%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $1,180 $1,163 −$17 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,009 +$9 (+1%)
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $800 $801 +$1 (+0%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $700 $703 +$3 (+0%)
Will Uzbekistan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $700 $696 −$4 (-1%)
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 100¢ $500 $513 +$13 (+3%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $500 $508 +$8 (+2%)
Will a player representing Colombia be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Will Switzerland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $500 $502 +$2 (+0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Scotland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? No 93¢ 95¢ $400 $407 +$7 (+2%)
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $400 $393 −$7 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $150 −$70 -46%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $2,004 +$36 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $150 +$11 +8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $500 +$7 +1%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $300 +$3 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 04 $605 +$140 +23%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 02 $1,003 +$92 +9%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $3,495 +$87 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Jun 02 $9 +$20 +226%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 29 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Olympiacos win the 2025-26 Euroleague? May 25 $5 +$23 +467%
Will Velichie (Velichie) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian p Apr 21 $2,800 +$105 +4%
Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) win at least one seat in the 2026 Apr 21 $2,740 +$294 +11%
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamen Apr 21 $4,029 +$186 +5%
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish secon Apr 20 $999 −$75 -8%
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian par Apr 19 $600 +$27 +4%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgaria Apr 17 $878 +$92 +10%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Olimpia Milano Apr 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 17 $3 +$8 +261%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025-26 Euroleague? Apr 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? Mar 01 $7,087 +$138 +2%
Will Trump say "Capital of the World" during the 2026 State of the Uni Feb 25 $50 +$24 +47%
Will Trump say "Maduro" during the State of the Union address? Feb 25 $150 +$21 +14%
Will Trump say "Mexico" during the State of the Union address? Feb 25 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during the State of the Union address? Feb 25 $200 +$25 +12%
Will Trump say "UFC" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $300 +$148 +49%
Will Trump say "Black" or "Hispanic" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Western Hemisphere" during the State of the Union addr Feb 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump say "Congo" during the State of the Union address? Feb 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Ethiopia" during the State of the Union address? Feb 24 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Netherlands win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 09 $6,997 +$89 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 95¢ $2,502 5m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 93¢ $80 43m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 91¢ $501 46m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 90¢ $501 49m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 91¢ $201 50m
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 88¢ $100 55m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 51¢ $81 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $101 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 80¢ $50 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 78¢ $47 1h
Will Switzerland finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY No 98¢ $100 3h
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $800 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $100 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 14h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $150 14h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $100 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $501 14h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 96¢ $800 27h
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $500 30h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 92¢ $1,002 2d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 91¢ $501 2d
World Cup: Largest Margin of Victory Record Broken? BUY No 93¢ $401 2d
World Cup: Fastest Goal Record Broken? BUY No 96¢ $1,252 2d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 94¢ $501 2d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 94¢ $501 2d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 94¢ $1,072 2d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $300 3d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 96¢ $501 3d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 97¢ $501 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 96¢ $2,040 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71,353.05 · official $71,356.11 (match) · 147 history records