Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:05:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5182…0120 crypto 1048 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8,135 (+2%) realized +$7,012 · open +$1,123
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate91%936W / 91L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$495per market
Trades / day61.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$16,502now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$5,168
tech 1% +$291
finance 1% −$336
other 1% −$1,115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 +1.0% -8.6% 95% 13% -8.8%
≤30d 705 -5.1% -14.1% 89% 13% -10.3%
≤90d 1027 -1.5% -10.9% 91% 15% -9.0%
all 1027 -1.5% -10.9% 91% 15% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 15% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 2% -17.7%
15% -27.2% 1% -25.7%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$288 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$16,502
Realized+$7,012
Unrealized+$1,123
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses936 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1027 / 1048
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$495
Trades / day61.5
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1027 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $3,406 $3,612 +$206 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 87¢ 99¢ $2,605 $2,968 +$363 (+14%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in June? No 93¢ 95¢ $2,284 $2,334 +$51 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 70¢ 97¢ $728 $1,017 +$289 (+40%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? No 98¢ 99¢ $980 $988 +$8 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? No 87¢ 94¢ $869 $944 +$75 (+9%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? No 82¢ 88¢ $660 $700 +$40 (+6%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 52¢ $620 $525 −$95 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 40¢ 95¢ $200 $475 +$275 (+138%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? No 55¢ 76¢ $330 $456 +$126 (+38%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 91¢ 76¢ $454 $382 −$71 (-16%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? No 43¢ 66¢ $248 $381 +$133 (+53%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 93¢ 82¢ $372 $331 −$41 (-11%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 93¢ $282 $279 −$2 (-1%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? No 32¢ 24¢ $363 $263 −$100 (-27%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 65¢ 48¢ $325 $243 −$82 (-25%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? No 80¢ 64¢ $236 $187 −$49 (-21%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 84¢ 82¢ $169 $165 −$4 (-2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $151 $151 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 93¢ 93¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 55¢ 55¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $447 +$53 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $475 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $488 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $486 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $483 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $468 +$31 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $483 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $486 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $477 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $458 +$42 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $491 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $474 +$26 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $472 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $477 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $472 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $382 +$118 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $452 +$48 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $450 +$50 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 16 $5,488 +$95 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $477 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $472 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $479 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $477 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $476 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $467 −$465 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $467 −$464 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $486 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $484 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $486 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $480 +$20 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 16 $9,800 +$92 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $486 −$485 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $491 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $486 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $481 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $477 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $477 −$475 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $485 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $490 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $457 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $447 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $475 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $481 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $488 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $486 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $481 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $483 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $70 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $398 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $495 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $483 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $486 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $477 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 55¢ $55 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY No 87¢ $867 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $123 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $32 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $73 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $16 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $37 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $22 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $41 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,501.99 · official $16,430.23 (match) · 3500 history records