Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x5180…c778
other · 37 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$5 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses15 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage297d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 79¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $46 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $4 $0 +6%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $1 $0 -21%
Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? Sep 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 27 $24 $0 +2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 19 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 19 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $32 $0 +1%
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker? Sep 13 $23 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 11 $26 −$2 -7%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $3 $0 +12%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Aug 26 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 29% $0
politics 27% $0
other 22% −$6
tech 9% $0
culture 8% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $45 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 97¢ $46 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $8 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $8 47h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $12 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $34 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $12 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $47 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $20 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $12 4d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $16 190d
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 200d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 205d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 232d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 232d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 232d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 232d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $16 256d
Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? SELL No 98¢ $16 257d
Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? BUY No 98¢ $16 257d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 257d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 257d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? SELL No 96¢ $16 257d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 36 -5.0% -14.1% 42% 6% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 6% -10.1%
10% -22.3% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records