Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

51 0x517d…8b62 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 603d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$7,128 (-75%) realized −$7,128 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip

Net edge-55%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate33%7W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$455per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$16

7 days−$16

14 days−$16

30 days−$16

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)-54.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-13.8%	-22.0%	64%	45%	-11.9%
≤30d	11	-13.8%	-22.0%	64%	45%	-11.9%
≤90d	11	-13.8%	-22.0%	64%	45%	-11.9%
all	21	-50.0%	-54.8%	33%	24%	-93.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-54.8%	24%	-93.0%
10%	-59.1%	10%	-93.7%
15%	-63.1%	10%	-94.3%
20%	-66.7%	5%	-94.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 70% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

14% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -50% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -90% → late -14% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$554 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.01 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$7,128

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses7 / 14

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage603d

Avg bet$455

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET	Jun 27	$421	+$42	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11PM ET	Jun 27	$21	+$6	+27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Jun 27	$21	+$3	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 27	$10	+$1	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Jun 27	$5	$0	-7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Jun 27	$26	−$25	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 27	$26	$0	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 27	$26	+$6	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Jun 27	$5	+$2	+42%
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?	Nov 06	$109	−$109	-100%
Will Trump win no swing states?	Nov 06	$1,360	−$1,360	-100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$5,118	−$3,738	-73%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64	Nov 06	$11	−$2	-22%
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 05	$500	−$81	-16%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency?	Nov 05	$889	−$889	-100%
Will a Democrat win Montana US Senate Election?	Nov 03	$549	−$549	-100%
Kamala wins 319-219 - swing state sweep	Nov 03	$10	$0	+0%
Will a Democrat win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 02	$200	−$200	-100%
Will a Democrat win Ohio Presidential Election?	Nov 02	$200	−$200	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET	SELL Down	20¢	$2	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET	SELL Down	24¢	$399	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET	SELL Down	20¢	$63	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$106	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET	BUY Down	18¢	$106	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$106	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12AM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$104	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$11	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11PM ET	SELL Down	28¢	$24	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11PM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$11	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	SELL Down	37¢	$24	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$21	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	SELL Up	48¢	$12	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$10	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	SELL Down	4¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Up	18¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Up	30¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	SELL Down	42¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	SELL Up	46¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	SELL Up	16¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$5	2h
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?	BUY Yes	6¢	$0	598d
Will Trump win no swing states?	BUY Yes	8¢	$158	598d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	SELL Yes	32¢	$158	598d
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states?	BUY Yes	4¢	$9	598d
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64	SELL Yes	7¢	$9	598d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records