Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:53:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
51 0x5179…9b36 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$126 (+35%) realized +$126 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$73
sports 6% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+55.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +71.4% +55.1% 62% 50% +25.6%
≤30d 8 +71.4% +55.1% 62% 50% +25.6%
≤90d 8 +71.4% +55.1% 62% 50% +25.6%
all 8 +71.4% +55.1% 62% 50% +25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +55.1% 50% +25.6%
10% +40.3% 50% +13.6%
15% +26.7% 50% +2.6%
20% +14.3% 50% -7.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$24 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$126
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage3d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $125 +$11 +9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$50 +236%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$18 -36%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 +$83 +326%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$21 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$29 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $21 0m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $21 0m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 2m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $104 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $34 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $21 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $33 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $32 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $37 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.78 · official $39.78 (match) · 24 history records