Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5179…d9f4 other 237 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 221L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$4
other 24% −$6
politics 18% −$2
economics 10% −$2
culture 6% −$2
crypto 6% −$1
world 5% −$1
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -10.0%
all 236 -0.5% -10.0% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 221
Open positions1
Markets (closed)236 / 237
History coverage171d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 91¢ 91¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $38 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $218 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $114 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $130 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $105 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $146 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $224 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 22 $42 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $137 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $138 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $186 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 21 $505 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $85 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $51 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $148 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $75 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $127 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 21 $128 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $152 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $174 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $178 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $28 12d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $28 13d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 26d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 27d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 27d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $37 35d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $37 35d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $35 117d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $35 117d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $39 117d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $39 117d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $34 117d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $35 117d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $40 117d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $40 117d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $7 117d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 117d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $7 117d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $12 117d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 117d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 117d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 117d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 117d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 117d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $40 117d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 94¢ $40 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 117d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $34 117d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.68 · official $34.68 (match) · 941 history records