Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5179…2b29 other 1567 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$23,310 (+34%) realized +$23,234 · open +$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%864W / 672L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$150est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$816now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$1,650
sports 46% +$821
world 1% +$276
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +13.0% +2.2% 53% 53% -22.2%
≤30d 316 +3.3% -6.6% 54% 53% -13.8%
≤90d 1446 +0.2% -9.4% 54% 53% -18.2%
all 1536 +4.7% -5.2% 56% 55% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 55% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 53% -15.0%
15% -22.6% 47% -23.2%
20% -30.2% 38% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$38 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$816
Realized+$23,234
Unrealized+$76
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses864 / 672
Est. fees paid−$150
Open positions31
Markets (closed)1536 / 1567
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$44
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 1536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 92¢ $64 $92 +$29 (+45%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $89 $91 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 59¢ 74¢ $71 $89 +$19 (+26%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 53¢ $34 $48 +$14 (+41%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 70¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $35 $37 +$3 (+7%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+47%)
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 98¢ $17 $20 +$2 (+13%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $16 $20 +$3 (+19%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 96¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $18 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $20 $16 −$3 (-17%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 40¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-9%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 79¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+44%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+25%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-16%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 26¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+28%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) South Africa 71¢ 72¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 294 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $116 +$124 +108%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 +$32 +117%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $48 +$12 +25%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $63 −$3 -5%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $166 −$165 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $109 −$108 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $83 +$97 +116%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $44 +$16 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $22 +$38 +178%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $150 +$30 +20%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $157 +$83 +53%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $28 +$32 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $14 +$46 +317%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $77 +$103 +134%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48 +$12 +24%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $211 −$208 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $223 +$77 +35%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $299 −$298 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $169 −$166 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 +$33 +124%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $88 +$32 +37%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 +$19 +45%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $94 +$26 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$19 +19%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $249 +$51 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$69 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$50 +488%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $50 +$70 +138%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $70 +$110 +156%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $166 +$74 +45%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $289 −$286 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $57 +$63 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $48 +$12 +24%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $192 −$190 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $69 −$69 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $57 −$56 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $18 +$12 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $43 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 60¢ $36 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 21¢ $13 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $28 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $0 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $27 12h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $23 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $12 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $29 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $3 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $26 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $20 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $4 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $5 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $35 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $47 19h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $33 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $33 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $33 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $33 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $48 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $45 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $33 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $18 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 63¢ $14 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 63¢ $8 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $815.57 · official $815.20 (match) · 3500 history records