Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:20:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5174…4fa3 other 23 markets active 3h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,954 (-34%) realized −$1,871 · open −$83
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$250per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$135
14 days−$257
30 days−$835
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$1,206
sports 37% −$877
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -41.6% -47.2% 20% 20% -67.9%
≤30d 8 -61.0% -64.8% 12% 12% -83.3%
≤90d 22 -29.0% -35.7% 36% 36% -42.2%
all 22 -29.0% -35.7% 36% 36% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 36% -42.2%
10% -41.9% 36% -47.7%
15% -47.5% 36% -52.8%
20% -52.7% 23% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$213 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$1,871
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage64d
Avg bet$250
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes $177 $94 −$83 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$6 +82%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $42 −$35 -83%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $138 −$89 -65%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 11 $125 −$121 -97%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Workd Jun 06 $114 −$111 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 06 $581 −$467 -80%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $212 −$206 -97%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $153 +$56 +36%
Will Cameron Young finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Truist Championshi May 13 $14 +$6 +44%
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Truist Championship May 13 $84 +$52 +62%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 09 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 09 $493 −$383 -78%
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 09 $86 −$84 -98%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $1,322 −$859 -65%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 06 $343 +$407 +119%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $465 −$424 -91%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 04 $147 +$91 +62%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Cadillac Champ May 04 $867 +$361 +42%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 02 $312 −$163 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 22 $6 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes $181 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 4d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $7 4d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $16 4d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $3 4d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $6 4d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $46 4d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $6 7d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $97 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes $2 8d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes $35 8d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $56 13d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $0 13d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $2 13d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? BUY Yes $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.84 · official $93.84 (match) · 160 history records