Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:35:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x516e…1673 other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-0%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate13%16W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$10
politics 33% −$9
sports 12% −$23
crypto 8% −$1
world 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 78 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 122 -3.7% -12.8% 13% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses16 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage132d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $33 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $32 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $317 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $407 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $297 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 19 $208 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $151 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 14 $189 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $188 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $153 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $180 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $180 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $164 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $192 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $186 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $190 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $320 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $338 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $359 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $383 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $210 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $202 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $157 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 07 $194 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $191 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 6h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 9h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 18h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 7d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 7d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 11d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 14d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $32 15d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $32 15d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 15d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $147 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $147 27d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $198 29d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $198 30d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $157 30d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $157 31d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $204 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 343 history records