Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5166…4db4 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+6%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$4
culture 23% +$56
world 23% +$2
weather 7% +$1
sports 5% −$2
politics 2% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.5% -9.9% 40% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 0% -9.0%
all 32 +11.7% +1.0% 53% 6% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 6% -4.4%
10% -8.6% 3% -13.6%
15% -17.5% 3% -21.9%
20% -25.6% 3% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×7.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.98 per $1 lost it wins $9.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage479d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $44 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $75 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $19 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $41 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $88 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $39 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $38 +$1 +3%
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5 Mar 18 $8 +$1 +17%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 17 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 17 $9 $0 +0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 16 $6 −$1 -19%
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $183 $0 -0%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Apr 01 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Kanye launch a coin in March? Mar 27 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $78 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $71 +$2 +3%
Robert Morris vs. Alabama Mar 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will "Anora" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 20 $14 +$57 +400%
Senators vs. Capitals Mar 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will "Nosferatu" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will "Mi Camino" win Best Original Song at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Yura Borisov win Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Costume Design at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 02 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $44 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $44 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $40 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $31 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $4 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $30 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 42h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $40 47h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $41 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $44 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $44 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $37 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $3 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $39 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 61¢ $40 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $22 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $17 23d
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5 SELL Yes 6¢ $9 98d
Peyton Watson: Points O/U 20.5 BUY Yes 5¢ $8 98d
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 SELL Yes 6¢ $3 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records