Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5165…5fed crypto 449 markets active 3d ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-3%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%150W / 299L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$11
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -47.8% -52.7% 33% 22% -41.3%
≤30d 114 -26.8% -33.7% 39% 35% -22.7%
≤90d 114 -26.8% -33.7% 39% 35% -22.7%
all 449 -20.8% -28.3% 33% 30% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 30% -23.1%
10% -35.2% 27% -30.5%
15% -41.4% 20% -37.2%
20% -47.2% 15% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses150 / 299
Open positions0
Markets (closed)449 / 449
History coverage100d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 449 Trades
no open positions (243 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 03 $2 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$15 +703%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 30 $3 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 30 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 30 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 30 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 30 $7 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1198 history records