Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5164…5bbc crypto 378 markets active 1h ago coverage 358d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate50%186W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$17
other 11% −$1
finance 5% $0
tech 5% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
sports 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.2% -13.3% 31% 12% -10.8%
≤30d 61 -1.4% -10.8% 30% 7% -10.0%
≤90d 139 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 6% -9.9%
all 372 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 13% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 13% -9.8%
10% -19.7% 9% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 4% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

358d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses186 / 186
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)372 / 378
History coverage358d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Up 86¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
GTA VI released before November 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 95¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 19 $90 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $81 −$5 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $96 −$3 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $91 $0 +0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 06 $29 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 05 $80 $0 -0%
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Jun 03 $8 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $175 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $197 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 28 $6 $0 -1%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? May 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 28 $70 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Anastasia Potapova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 26 $2 $0 -1%
Will Linda Nosková win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will Belinda Bencic win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 86¢ $1 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $90 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 86¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 93¢ $1 32h
GTA VI released before November 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 32h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 95¢ $1 32h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $1 32h
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $10 32h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $80 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $80 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $2 3d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL No 94¢ $2 3d
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $76 3d
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $44 6d
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $37 6d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $40 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? SELL No 100¢ $50 6d
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 7d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.88 · official $94.88 (match) · 929 history records