Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
51 0x5161…ea7f other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$94 (+2%) realized +$374 · open −$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate29%30W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$870
7 days+$743
14 days+$743
30 days+$743
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$90
world 31% −$412
sports 8% +$523
crypto 6% −$26
economics 5% +$227
politics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +36.4% +23.4% 40% 35% +26.4%
≤30d 20 +36.4% +23.4% 40% 35% +26.4%
≤90d 32 +8.4% -1.9% 38% 34% +4.9%
all 104 +2.6% -7.2% 29% 16% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 16% -1.5%
10% -16.0% 13% -10.9%
15% -24.2% 11% -19.5%
20% -31.6% 9% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$19 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$1,136
Realized+$374
Unrealized−$153
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses30 / 74
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions17
Markets (closed)104 / 121
History coverage101d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $89 $51 −$38 (-43%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $100 $39 −$61 (-61%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Korea Republic 5¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? No 71¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$34 -34%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$226 +221%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 −$9 -9%
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 +$29 +28%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$453 +442%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 +$612 +596%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 11 $200 +$126 +63%
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $50 +$101 +202%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? Jun 11 $100 +$18 +18%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Jun 11 $50 +$4 +9%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $50 −$17 -34%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 11 $50 −$25 -50%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 11 $49 −$35 -71%
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? May 11 $50 +$26 +51%
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? Apr 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Panthers vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5 Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $50 +$33 +67%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 01 $354 −$104 -30%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? Mar 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 27 $118 +$34 +28%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30? Mar 24 $149 +$79 +53%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Mar 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $233 −$67 -29%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Mar 14 $149 −$101 -67%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 12 $10 $0 +5%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $8 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 12 $144 −$11 -8%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Mar 12 $47 −$5 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 12 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Mar 12 $49 −$2 -4%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 07 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 07 $16 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 58m
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $66 58m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $88 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $94 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 1h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $328 1h
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 18h
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 18h
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 18h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 18h
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 18h
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 18h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $93 18h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $132 18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 18h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 18h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 18h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $555 18h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $100 25h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,135.77 · official $1,135.77 (match) · 414 history records