Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
51 0x5161…9ea1 other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$143 (+11%) realized +$160 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$131
14 days+$142
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$171
sports 8% −$56
crypto 1% +$11
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -3.8% -13.0% 56% 56% +1.8%
≤30d 34 -1.5% -10.9% 56% 56% +2.1%
≤90d 34 -1.5% -10.9% 56% 56% +2.1%
all 34 -1.5% -10.9% 56% 56% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 56% +2.1%
10% -19.4% 56% -7.6%
15% -27.2% 44% -16.6%
20% -34.3% 32% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized+$160
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)34 / 43
History coverage9d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 30¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+25%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 5¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $91 +$28 +30%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$2 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $86 +$23 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $23 +$19 +83%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $111 +$56 +50%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 +$12 +187%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $95 +$51 +53%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $86 +$20 +24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 −$32 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$26 +52%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $116 +$57 +49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$9 +35%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 +$9 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $78 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 12h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 29¢ $10 23h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 47¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 0¢ $29 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $41 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $30 36h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 37h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 37h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 45h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 53¢ $57 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $21 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $46 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 3d
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.33 · official $220.33 (match) · 102 history records