Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0

score

51 0x5161…bf33 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$2,084 (+17%) realized +$964 · open +$273

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate48%15W / 16L

Whale WR67%big bets

Drawdown55%max

Avg bet$375per market

Trades / day4.7pace

Fees−$143est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$920now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$238

7 days+$701

14 days+$932

30 days+$964

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)+1.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	27	+10.5%	+0.0%	48%	41%	-3.6%
≤30d	31	+12.4%	+1.7%	48%	42%	-2.0%
≤90d	31	+12.4%	+1.7%	48%	42%	-2.0%
all	31	+12.4%	+1.7%	48%	42%	-2.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.7%	42%	-2.0%
10%	-8.0%	39%	-11.4%
15%	-16.9%	35%	-19.9%
20%	-25.1%	35%	-27.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

13% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +29% → late -3% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$261 vs −$185 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.33 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage

Net worth$920

Realized+$964

Unrealized+$273

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses15 / 16

Whale WR (big bets)67%

Est. fees paid−$143

Open positions2

Markets (closed)31 / 33

History coverage15d

Avg bet$375

Trades / day4.7

Drawdown55%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 31 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	51¢	74¢	$547	$788	+$241 (+44%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?	Yes	11¢	14¢	$100	$132	+$32 (+32%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$271	$0	−$271 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks	Spurs	46¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$50	$0	−$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$100	$0	−$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$200	$0	−$200 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	20¢	0¢	$500	$0	−$500 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$403	+$99	+24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 15	$1,679	−$1,044	-62%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$482	+$538	+112%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$1,887	+$75	+4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1,003	+$119	+12%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$847	−$62	-7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$304	−$201	-66%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye?	Jun 14	$103	−$100	-98%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$217	+$173	+80%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$497	+$263	+53%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland?	Jun 14	$51	−$29	-56%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland?	Jun 14	$51	−$16	-31%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland?	Jun 13	$51	−$50	-97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$199	+$213	+107%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 13	$200	−$185	-92%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$102	+$72	+70%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$308	−$122	-40%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$51	−$38	-74%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$62	−$23	-37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$508	+$555	+109%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 13	$62	+$233	+379%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 13	$51	+$58	+112%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 13	$205	+$7	+3%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 13	$205	−$200	-97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$522	+$966	+185%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$512	−$500	-98%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$204	−$100	-49%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$138	+$248	+180%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$41	−$17	-42%
Spurs vs. Thunder	May 31	$489	+$303	+62%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$278	−$271	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$555	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	99¢	$501	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	SELL Yes	8¢	$133	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	79¢	$403	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1,171	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	SELL Yes	46¢	$503	2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	45¢	$508	2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$1,020	4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	46¢	$482	5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$1,454	5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	44¢	$89	5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$610	5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	24¢	$508	5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$805	6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$384	9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,122	20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	89¢	$1,003	20h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	SELL Yes	31¢	$589	20h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$337	21h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	33¢	$306	21h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	SELL Yes	32¢	$196	21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	20¢	$103	21h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$204	21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$304	22h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	22h
Knicks vs. Spurs	SELL Knicks	99¢	$390	22h
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	62¢	$63	23h
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	61¢	$101	23h
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	40¢	$53	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $920.14 · official $920.14 (match) · 75 history records