Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5160…57b7 politics 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$16
other 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
all 78 -0.3% -9.8% 6% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage626d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $54 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $55 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $55 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $55 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $55 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Swann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinoi Feb 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 24 $54 $0 -0%
Mike Huckabee confirmed as ambassador to Israel? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jusuf Nurkic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the Eastern Conference? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Ansem criminal charges in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
GPT-5 not announced in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Warren Davidson be appointed as the next Ohio senator? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will CeeDee Lamb win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Roy Altman be appointed as the next Florida senator? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump formally nominate RFK Jr. to the cabinet? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Commanders win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2024 Carabao Cup? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Olga Sustanova win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans finish with the worst record in the NFL? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Ten or more Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Dolphins win the AFC East? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,250 in November? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will there be more than 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Seas Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC Championship? Nov 25 $0 $0 -3%
Will the US gain less than 100,000 jobs in November? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $53 12h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 26d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 26d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $53 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $53 31d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 36d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 36d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 39d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 40d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 60d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 60d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $55 64d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 65d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 71d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 72d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 81d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 81d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 89d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 90d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 91d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 92d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $55 94d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $55 95d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 98d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 98d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 100d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 172 history records