Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5160…a157 crypto 913 markets active 4d ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (141 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$628 (-8%) realized −$628 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%352W / 633L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day141.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$375
14 days−$514
30 days−$523
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (141 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 321 -26.7% -33.7% 26% 25% -22.9%
≤30d 985 -6.3% -15.2% 36% 30% -14.4%
≤90d 985 -6.3% -15.2% 36% 30% -14.4%
all 985 -6.3% -15.2% 36% 30% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 30% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 24% -22.6%
15% -30.7% 20% -30.0%
20% -37.5% 19% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$628
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses352 / 633
Open positions0
Markets (closed)985 / 913
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day141.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 985 Trades
no open positions (84 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1500%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1943%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1624%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1585%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2582%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1585%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1915%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1711%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2353%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1534%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1887%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -2654%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$44 -1832%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -2051%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1852%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1973%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -2025%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -2083%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1877%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2673%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records