Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x515f…2f21 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$7
other 27% $0
politics 8% −$1
crypto 6% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 44% 11% -7.7%
≤90d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 44% 11% -7.7%
all 28 +0.9% -8.7% 46% 7% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 7% -8.4%
10% -17.4% 7% -17.2%
15% -25.4% 7% -25.2%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage375d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 67¢ 68¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $50 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $49 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $55 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $52 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $19 −$5 -25%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $26 +$10 +39%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $1 $0 +4%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 23 $10 $0 -2%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Joaquin Niemann win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sebastian Burduja? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $4 $0 -7%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 10? Jun 11 $24 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 09 $1 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 68¢ $16 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $34 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $7 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 17h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $5 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 23h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $50 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $15 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $35 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 57¢ $37 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 56¢ $36 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $43 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $7 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $6 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $44 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $31 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $55 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 69¢ $54 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $52 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $14 26d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.38 · official $51.38 (match) · 123 history records