trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 44% | 11% | -7.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 44% | 11% | -7.7% |
| all | 28 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 46% | 7% | -8.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.7% | 7% | -8.4% |
| 10% | -17.4% | 7% | -17.2% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 7% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -32.7% | 0% | -32.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | No | 67¢ | 68¢ | $50 | $51 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 26 | $36 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 26 | $49 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 26 | $55 | −$2 | -3% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 24 | $52 | +$2 | +3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 23 | $19 | −$5 | -25% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 21 | $26 | +$10 | +39% |
| Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 | Jun 24 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? | Jun 23 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? | Jun 23 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? | Jun 19 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? | Jun 17 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 15 | $8 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 14 | $2 | +$1 | +36% |
| Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jun 14 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 300–324 times June 6–13? | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after | Jun 13 | $5 | −$1 | -12% |
| Will Joaquin Niemann win The 2025 U.S. Open? | Jun 12 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sebastian Burduja? | Jun 12 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 11 | $4 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? | Jun 11 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 10? | Jun 11 | $24 | $0 | +1% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | Jun 09 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? | Jun 09 | $1 | $0 | -11% |