Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:19:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x515e…d54a crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-22%) realized −$8 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate63%17W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day55.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -11.4% -19.8% 63% 41% -26.9%
≤30d 27 -11.4% -19.8% 63% 41% -26.9%
≤90d 27 -11.4% -19.8% 63% 41% -26.9%
all 27 -11.4% -19.8% 63% 41% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 41% -26.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 33% -33.9%
15% -34.5% 11% -40.3%
20% -40.9% 4% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses17 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records