Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x515e…8309
world · 71 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$44,057 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$57,860 · open +$2,464
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$53,757
Realized−$57,860
Unrealized+$2,464
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses43 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)59 / 71
History coverage32d
Avg bet$18,704
Trades / day85.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 12 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,313
7 days−$59,189
14 days−$58,797
30 days−$57,860
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $12,431 $13,378 +$947 (+8%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $9,500 $9,770 +$270 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $8,811 $9,620 +$809 (+9%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 96¢ 99¢ $8,293 $8,518 +$225 (+3%)
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? No 97¢ 97¢ $3,855 $3,853 −$2 (-0%)
Russia coup attempt in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $2,164 $2,187 +$24 (+1%)
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $2,102 $2,069 −$33 (-2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 88¢ 97¢ $1,445 $1,592 +$147 (+10%)
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,355 $1,416 +$61 (+5%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $989 $1,000 +$11 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $346 $351 +$4 (+1%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 30¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $47,412 $0 −$47,412 (-100%)
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $9,900 $0 −$9,900 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $28,535 +$4,990 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $116,306 −$10,806 -9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $24,842 +$517 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $10,357 +$986 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $950 −$882 -93%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $24,603 −$9 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3,137 +$38 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $59,910 +$30 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $84,550 +$1,661 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $85,614 −$9,213 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $23,689 −$589 -2%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 07 $48,495 −$47,412 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,683 +$1,199 +71%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1,200 +$300 +25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $268,408 +$2,892 +1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $553 +$19 +4%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $197 +$3 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $834 +$4 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $106,546 −$4,770 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $4,407 +$58 +1%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,005 +$22 +2%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 01 $3,095 +$46 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $26,700 +$159 +1%
Another Elon baby by June 30? Jun 01 $806 −$6 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,505 +$23 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $7,320 +$105 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 31 $754 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 31 $341 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $174 +$11 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $461 +$5 +1%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $430 −$54 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $3,900 +$200 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $22,768 +$1,346 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4,632 +$134 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $9,464 +$193 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $6,971 +$157 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $13,185 +$2,226 +17%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 27 $9,567 +$302 +3%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 27 $9,100 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $89,866 +$5,044 +6%
Evo Morales leaves Bolivia by May 31? May 26 $90 +$2 +2%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? May 26 $310 −$10 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $12,206 +$75 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 25 $10 $0 +2%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? May 25 $190 +$22 +11%
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? May 25 $735 +$3 +0%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? May 25 $775 +$102 +13%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? May 25 $2,810 +$174 +6%
New pandemic in 2026? May 25 $4,400 +$50 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 60% −$3,741
crypto 20% +$2,892
politics 12% −$55,271
other 6% +$526
finance 2% +$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 90¢ $3,005 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 90¢ $100 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 90¢ $10 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 90¢ $320 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 90¢ $5 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 90¢ $2 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 90¢ $673 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 90¢ $5,616 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 76¢ $3,805 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 74¢ $53 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 74¢ $535 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 74¢ $5 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 71¢ $7 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 70¢ $2,541 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 70¢ $211 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 70¢ $763 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 95¢ $18,259 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 94¢ $1,870 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 92¢ $1,834 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 92¢ $551 15h
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? BUY No 97¢ $3,860 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 92¢ $16 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 92¢ $6 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 92¢ $1,259 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $594 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $2,733 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $4,075 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $22 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $467 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -6.2% -15.1% 57% 21% -20.0%
≤30d 59 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 14% -13.9%
≤90d 59 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 14% -13.9%
all 59 -2.7% -12.0% 73% 14% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover85.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 14% -13.9%
10% -20.4% 3% -22.2%
15% ← realistic here -28.1% 2% -29.7%
20% -35.1% 2% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53,756.60 · official $53,756.60 (match) · 2828 history records