Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x515c…7587 weather 399 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$167 (+2%) realized +$156 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%212W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$476now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$35
14 days+$121
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$33
other 0% +$3
crypto 0% −$16
world 0% −$3
tech 0% +$6
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -2.5% -11.8% 61% 54% -11.8%
≤30d 109 -9.9% -18.5% 60% 56% -6.7%
≤90d 391 +7.1% -3.1% 54% 50% -10.2%
all 391 +7.1% -3.1% 54% 50% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 50% -10.2%
10% -12.3% 36% -18.8%
15% -20.8% 25% -26.6%
20% -28.6% 17% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$476
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses212 / 179
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)391 / 399
History coverage78d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? No 58¢ 100¢ $70 $120 +$50 (+71%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? No 67¢ 100¢ $80 $119 +$39 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? No 53¢ 70¢ $79 $105 +$26 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? No 87¢ 83¢ $41 $39 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? No 63¢ 62¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? No 66¢ 64¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? No 58¢ 24¢ $40 $16 −$24 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? No 76¢ 2¢ $78 $3 −$75 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $58 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $34 −$33 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $79 +$30 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$38 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$19 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$10 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $133 −$130 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $36 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$15 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $92 +$60 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$36 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $62 −$61 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $89 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $87 +$43 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $43 +$15 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 +$17 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $86 +$34 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$37 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 12 $66 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $43 −$42 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $43 −$43 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $43 +$9 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $37 −$37 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $94 +$76 +80%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $76 +$24 +32%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$24 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $29 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $65 +$34 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $47 +$32 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $37 +$52 +141%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 −$5 -25%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 −$19 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $38 +$21 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $62 +$49 +78%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $69 +$33 +47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 73¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? BUY No 63¢ $40 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 66¢ $38 13h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $58 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 76¢ $79 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 58¢ $41 22h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 58¢ $71 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? BUY No 53¢ $81 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 67¢ $81 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY No 47¢ $32 35h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 25¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 25¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 24¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 52¢ $34 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 6¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 9¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 6¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 59¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 76¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $36 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $51 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $79 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 58¢ $52 4d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $62 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 54¢ $24 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 60¢ $106 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 59¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $475.96 · official $475.96 (match) · 978 history records