Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:00:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x515b…2d91 sports 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 419d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,187 (-25%) realized −$1,233 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$647now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$515
7 days+$505
14 days+$505
30 days+$480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$235
politics 29% −$811
other 21% −$315
culture 6% −$152
finance 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +58.4% +43.3% 88% 88% +29.6%
≤30d 17 +49.1% +34.9% 82% 82% +26.9%
≤90d 52 -17.4% -25.3% 42% 42% -25.0%
all 55 -14.9% -23.0% 44% 44% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 44% -33.8%
10% -30.3% 40% -40.1%
15% -37.1% 36% -45.9%
20% -43.2% 31% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$61 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

419d coverage
Net worth$647
Realized−$1,233
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 31
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions4
Markets (closed)55 / 62
History coverage419d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Under 80¢ 88¢ $300 $330 +$30 (+10%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 74¢ $150 $163 +$13 (+9%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 74¢ 76¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 50¢ 31¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$19 +124%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $201 +$56 +28%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $255 +$56 +22%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$20 +65%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $251 +$46 +18%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$38 +186%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $31 +$38 +124%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $70 +$32 +46%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $61 +$72 +118%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$25 +83%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $20 +$18 +86%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $76 +$33 +44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 +$14 +57%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$69 +136%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $51 +$35 +70%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $2 +$4 +208%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Brooks Koepka finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $10 +$20 +203%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Justin Rose finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta National Invi Apr 13 $30 +$29 +96%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $40 +$35 +88%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta Nationa Apr 13 $100 +$42 +42%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Apr 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Cardinals vs. Cowboys Apr 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $305 −$305 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Apr 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Apr 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 12m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $101 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $201 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $50 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $20 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 78¢ $201 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $234 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $151 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score AND Will Uruguay win on 20 BUY 53¢ $20 5h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 50¢ $1 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $151 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $10 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $10 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $101 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 70¢ $20 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 23¢ $10 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 44¢ $31 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 67¢ $50 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $51 10h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $20 25h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 61¢ $30 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY 39¢ $15 32h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $25 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 32h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $20 32h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $120 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $646.52 · official $646.52 (match) · 133 history records