Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
51 0x515a…0e16 other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 124L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$46
politics 43% −$18
sports 6% −$18
economics 2% −$2
tech 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -22.3% -29.7% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 14 -14.4% -22.5% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 116 -5.1% -14.2% 4% 3% -9.8%
all 132 -2.1% -11.4% 6% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 5% -9.7%
10% -19.9% 5% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 4% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$2 · ×8.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage119d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $307 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $327 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 21 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $369 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $279 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $328 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $236 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $541 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $223 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $271 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $208 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $254 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $217 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $448 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $250 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $206 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $275 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $255 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $234 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $273 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $217 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $249 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $251 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $279 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $213 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $535 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 39h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $23 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $39 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $39 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $44 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 4d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $41 12d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 12d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $37 13d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 16d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 26d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 28d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $256 28d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $256 30d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $223 30d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $223 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.97 · official $56.97 (match) · 378 history records