Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:57:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x5159…03ce
other · 233 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$109 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$205
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses90 / 137
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions6
Markets (closed)227 / 233
History coverage140d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 6 History 227 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$441
7 days−$453
14 days−$482
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $29 $25 −$4 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$11 -95%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $148 −$127 -86%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will "SPY x FAMILY Season 3" win Best Comedy Anime at the 2026 Crunchy Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "CITY THE ANIMATION" win Best Comedy Anime at the 2026 Crunchyrol Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Jun 14 $38 −$26 -70%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 14 $29 −$15 -50%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Brentford FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "100 Meters" win Film of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime A Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "SAKAMOTO DAYS" win Best New Series at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $13 +$22 +170%
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $38 −$10 -27%
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $21 −$4 -20%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $32 −$4 -12%
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF Jun 03 $19 −$4 -23%
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 03 $57 −$9 -16%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $21 −$8 -36%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $16 −$8 -49%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $19 +$13 +70%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 24 $42 +$61 +146%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $11 −$4 -42%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? May 23 $11 +$25 +231%
Will "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 May 23 $25 +$7 +30%
Will "Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle" win Film of the May 23 $25 +$11 +42%
Will "Gachiakuta" win Best New Series at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Aw May 23 $20 +$9 +44%
Will "DAN DA DAN Season 2" win Best Comedy Anime at the 2026 Crunchyro May 23 $20 +$14 +69%
Will "Gachiakuta" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime May 23 $2 $0 -16%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $16 −$2 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% +$298
sports 22% −$246
world 3% +$40
culture 3% −$60
crypto 1% −$17
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 12h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $13 12h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 2d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $27 2d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $28 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 10d
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 10d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 10d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 10d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 10d
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 10d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 10d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $28 10d
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 10d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 10d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 10d
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF SELL Yes 14¢ $15 10d
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL Yes 23¢ $27 10d
Will a player representing Spain be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF BUY Yes 16¢ $19 10d
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI BUY Yes 25¢ $33 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -84.4% -85.8% 3% 3% -79.1%
≤30d 55 -38.2% -44.1% 22% 22% -33.2%
≤90d 143 -6.7% -15.6% 36% 36% -10.4%
all 227 -3.1% -12.3% 40% 39% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 39% -9.2%
10% -20.7% 37% -17.9%
15% -28.4% 33% -25.9%
20% -35.4% 27% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.72 · official $204.72 (match) · 630 history records