Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5158…7df4 crypto 659 markets active 1d ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (350 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$19,168 (+167%) realized +$19,168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%383W / 730L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day350.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (350 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 784 +13.0% +2.2% 31% 27% -26.4%
≤30d 1113 +12.2% +1.5% 34% 28% -20.4%
≤90d 1113 +12.2% +1.5% 34% 28% -20.4%
all 1113 +12.2% +1.5% 34% 28% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover350.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.5% 28% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -8.2% 23% -28.0%
15% -17.1% 18% -35.0%
20% -25.2% 15% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19,168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses383 / 730
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1113 / 659
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day350.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1113 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$2 +538%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$8 -413%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$1 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$6 -1295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$3 -226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$6 +847%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$7 -324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$5 -1467%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$4 -133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$3 +464%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$1 +396%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$1 +358%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$4 -372%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$2 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$7 +1329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $0 +$2 +489%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$6 +1754%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $0 +$1 +798%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 −$6 -1695%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$5 -1677%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $0 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $0 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records