Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x5157…e0bc other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-13%) realized −$52 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$41
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$19
sports 10% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -23.3% -30.6% 43% 43% -21.5%
≤30d 9 -17.0% -24.9% 44% 44% -23.1%
≤90d 9 -17.0% -24.9% 44% 44% -23.1%
all 9 -17.0% -24.9% 44% 44% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 44% -23.1%
10% -32.1% 44% -30.5%
15% -38.7% 44% -37.2%
20% -44.7% 33% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$33 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 14
History coverage10d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $50 $31 −$19 (-38%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$43 +140%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 52¢ $30 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $41 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.18 · official $141.18 (match) · 29 history records