Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
51 0x5154…a301 other 203 markets active 0h ago coverage 638d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$1,131 (+16%) realized +$1,049 · open +$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%105W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$106
14 days+$232
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$681
other 19% +$150
finance 7% +$327
tech 5% −$138
sports 2% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+48.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +76.2% +59.5% 68% 68% +31.7%
≤30d 124 +80.3% +63.2% 57% 55% -4.9%
≤90d 153 +74.3% +57.7% 59% 56% +0.3%
all 178 +64.5% +48.9% 59% 56% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +48.9% 56% +3.8%
10% +34.6% 53% -6.1%
15% +21.6% 48% -15.2%
20% +9.7% 42% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +65% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +91% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$32 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$460
Realized+$1,049
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses105 / 73
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions25
Markets (closed)178 / 203
History coverage638d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? No 82¢ 94¢ $38 $43 +$6 (+15%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 44¢ 53¢ $35 $42 +$7 (+21%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? No 29¢ 80¢ $15 $42 +$27 (+174%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of June 22 2026? No 48¢ 50¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 22 2026? No 39¢ 56¢ $21 $29 +$9 (+42%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $77.50 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 22 2026? No 35¢ 34¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 22 2026? No 20¢ 14¢ $32 $22 −$10 (-30%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $142 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 57¢ 87¢ $14 $22 +$8 (+54%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of June 22 2026? No 52¢ 96¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+85%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Yes 36¢ 56¢ $12 $19 +$7 (+57%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of June 22 2026? No 52¢ 96¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+85%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of June 22 2026? No 50¢ 94¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+88%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 58¢ 36¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-39%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June? No 50¢ 96¢ $7 $14 +$7 (+92%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $144 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 47¢ 77¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+65%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Yes 35¢ 22¢ $18 $11 −$6 (-36%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $55 in June? No 50¢ 98¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+95%)
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $1.50 in June? No 51¢ 97¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+90%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $244 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 68¢ 96¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+40%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.90 Week of June 22 2026? No 52¢ 52¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $370 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 50¢ 67¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+34%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No 53¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+87%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 22 $19 +$13 +68%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $65 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +73%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 21 $11 +$8 +79%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $365 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +66%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 21 $2 +$2 +123%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 21 $2 +$7 +373%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $37 −$17 -46%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $100 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $382.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $112 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +12%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? Jun 17 $21 −$8 -39%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $11 +$8 +73%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $19 +$6 +29%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +41%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $142 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $41 +$41 +102%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $28 +$17 +61%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $11 +$9 +80%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +246%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$29 +299%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $11 +$8 +70%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 14 $17 +$6 +34%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$19 +94%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -83%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -92%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $28 +$22 +79%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +41%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 12 $15 −$2 -13%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 12 $29 +$15 +52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $41 +$42 +103%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $22 −$15 -70%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $9 +$5 +56%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $39 +$35 +90%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 10 $6 +$12 +206%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $272 in June? Jun 09 $4 +$2 +56%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $174 in June? Jun 09 $0 +$4 +2876%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$5 +590%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 08 $9 +$5 +54%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in June? Jun 07 $5 $0 -4%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in June? Jun 07 $3 +$3 +94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 06 $1 $0 -24%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $81 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $23 +$27 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 24m
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 20¢ $17 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 20¢ $17 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 48¢ $31 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $31 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 35¢ $29 1h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $67 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 39¢ $21 3h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 4h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $65 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 4h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 92¢ $6 4h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $365 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 4h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 71¢ $32 4h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 4h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 47¢ $19 4h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $77.50 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $28 4h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 4h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 74¢ $4 4h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 50¢ $10 4h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 98¢ $13 5h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 5h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $370 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 5h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $142 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 5h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $244 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 5h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $65 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 5h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $144 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 5h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $365 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 5h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $142 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 5h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $144 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $459.78 · official $459.78 (match) · 627 history records