Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
51 0x514d…d996 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 345d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$1
other 23% +$1
politics 19% +$1
crypto 7% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +2.2% -7.5% 27% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 16 +1.8% -7.9% 25% 6% -9.5%
all 38 +0.6% -9.0% 26% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 3% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 3% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

345d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage345d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $76 +$4 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $82 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $43 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $5 +$3 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $4 −$1 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $36 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $39 −$4 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 4–11? Aug 10 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $40 −$1 -2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Jul 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%? Jul 10 $1 $0 +10%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will 'Superman' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jul 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2? Jul 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 10 $41 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 09 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $4 $0 -11%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Jul 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 08 $3 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Jul 08 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 9h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $34 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $6 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $35 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $5 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $40 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $40 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $26 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $17 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $43 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $43 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $6 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $35 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $36 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $33 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $34 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 75¢ $38 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $38 27d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 27d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.28 · official $29.28 (match) · 175 history records