Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:13:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
51 0x514d…1383 crypto 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$76 (+0%) realized +$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%146W / 7L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$66
other 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 11 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 28 +0.4% -9.2% 96% 0% -9.2%
all 153 +0.3% -9.3% 95% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.25 per $1 lost it wins $5.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses146 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage267d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? No 100¢ 99¢ $226 $226 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $224 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $209 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $223 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $222 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $221 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 02 $221 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $220 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? May 28 $219 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? May 20 $219 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $219 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $219 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 10 $217 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 06 $218 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $217 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 01 $216 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 21 $215 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $215 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $215 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $213 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $212 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $211 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $211 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 01 $208 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $208 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $208 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $207 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $206 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $205 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $205 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $204 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $204 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $203 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $203 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $202 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $202 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $202 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 27 $202 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 25? Feb 24 $201 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $200 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $195 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $194 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? Feb 16 $193 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 11? Feb 11 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 7? Feb 06 $196 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $226 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $224 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $209 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $15 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $223 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $223 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $222 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $221 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $221 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? SELL No 97¢ $17 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? SELL No 97¢ $37 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? SELL No 97¢ $37 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? SELL No 97¢ $37 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? SELL No 97¢ $37 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? SELL No 97¢ $37 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? SELL No 97¢ $20 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? BUY No 97¢ $220 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $220 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $219 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $219 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $219 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? SELL No 100¢ $178 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? SELL No 100¢ $41 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $219 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $217 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $218 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $217 46d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $216 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.66 · official $225.66 (match) · 331 history records