Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:03:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

51
0x514b…6931
other · 48 markets active 1h ago
5.5score
+$3,271 +20%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,306 · open −$36
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$547
Realized+$3,306
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)43 / 48
History coverage31d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit0%
Chart Positions 5 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$950
14 days+$2,882
30 days+$3,305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $183 $186 +$3 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 18¢ 24¢ $50 $66 +$15 (+31%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 81¢ 76¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $68 $32 −$37 (-54%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 81¢ 72¢ $24 $21 −$3 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+62%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $156 +$184 +118%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,612 −$25 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $121 −$10 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,414 −$45 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $19 −$18 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $140 −$123 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $218 −$214 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $88 +$108 +122%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,100 +$1,059 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $822 +$112 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $65 +$31 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $25 −$24 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $502 +$33 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $89 +$38 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,553 +$396 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 05 $66 −$46 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2,181 +$297 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $425 +$622 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $343 +$456 +133%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,267 +$243 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $91 +$166 +182%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $95 +$122 +129%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $99 −$41 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $240 −$125 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $153 −$104 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $193 +$30 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 16 $315 −$69 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $41 +$459 +1116%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $82 −$65 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $156 +$119 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 13 $50 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$3,271
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $151 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $24 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $57 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $96 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 9h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $37 9h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 23h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $14 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $27 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 30h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2,366 33h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,503 43h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $24 45h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 45h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $900 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,503 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $33 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $48 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.9% -23.9% 40% 33% +0.7%
≤30d 41 +15.2% +4.3% 44% 39% +9.2%
≤90d 43 +14.7% +3.7% 44% 37% +9.1%
all 43 +14.7% +3.7% 44% 37% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 37% +9.1%
10% -6.2% 28% -1.3%
15% -15.2% 26% -10.9%
20% -23.6% 21% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $547.28 · official $547.37 (match) · 261 history records